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As one of the several key battleground states deciding this year’s electoral college results for yet a second time, Georgia has become no stranger to the influx of news agencies seeking to gauge the pulse of voters from every possible angle. As most of these opinions testify, these head-to-head matchups lean one way or another dependent upon the source, with diehards in either camp standing strong in their optimism about who is really ahead in the approval polls.
President Trump’s recent conviction and on-going trials being one factor no one can ignore, minority voters become the clear obvious second focal point of both presidential campaigns. So just how are minority voters leaning this November and is their allegiance etched in stone? The answer is a resounding ‘it depends’ followed by a strong ‘no.’ Here’s what makes 2024 different from 2020.
As a fresh face on the political scene in the 2016 election, Donald Trump embodied all of the spirit of a fighter and the heart of a lion coming in to rescue America from the complacency and down-right heresy that took place in prior administrations, and answer to those who sold out our sovereign rights to the highest bidder by opening the border, giving up vital farmland, and creating an economic perfect storm. He vowed to drain the swamp, as do most Republican candidates. With the swagger of someone who could actually follow through on this lofty promise, he handled the Democrat opposition causing liberals to melt into their sofas as the results rolled in.
This was not the victory dance of 2020.
Of course we all know a very different story occurred; leaving most conservatives nationwide scratching their heads on Wednesday, November 4th. Yet whether you prescribe to the ‘it was stolen’ brigade or not, there was no other option put forward on any kitchen table discussion but to make sure it, meaning a Republican loss of the presidency, did not happen again.
That is why in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan, dubbed the Big 5, in both 2016 and 2020, campaigns choose their ground game very carefully to ensure the victory.
In this year’s race, however, Georgia should not be underestimated or overlooked.
RNC murmurings about the lackluster fundraising efforts by the Georgia GOP has left many top Republicans seeking outside support from political philanthropists discussed in ‘top secret’ meetings that lead to even more rumored conversations.
The bottom line -- no one has revealed their hand as of yet.
Democrat operatives revel in the strategic prowess that led to widespread upsets in the previous contest, yet recognize the unspoken wildcard President Biden’s ineptness represents. Slick advertising, paid troops of volunteers galvanized to travel from state to state, and a carefully constructed national crisis all play into their calculated strategy.
But some say the Trump campaign’s strategy is shaping up to be less about offense and more about crossed fingers. One can only wonder if the MAGA clad minorities trending on social media actually represent a move in the polls toward 47.
The difference in either scenario could be minority voters.
While some in the Georgia Black Republican Council, for example, hold that outreach in minority communities is key to securing the minority vote, many in leadership yield to a more passive response, holding on to pursestrings and pivoting to a more rural strategy for the win. Other opinions express the surety that enough of the magic minority voter base is locked into a Trump ballot because of his conviction, not in spite of it, further cloud the possibility of a Trump lead going into the third quarter. But as the Atlanta Falcons have proven time and time again, it matters little what the third quarter results look like when the fourth quarter buzzer sounds.
Donald Trump’s campaign, like its namesake, needs to keep swinging in this fight until the fight is won.
It is his to lose.
Unfortunately, he cannot do it alone.
Despite being bombarded by criminal charges, investigations, and other campaign challenges, the Republican hopeful has broken fundraising records and still turns out top rally results. His stamina is fixed, and his ability to turn this economic depression around is encouraging.
But the dog-and-pony show Trump campaign operatives appear to promote by parading black and other minority faces in staged photo ops does not translate to that elusive 14% of minority votes needed to secure a win in Georgia and other states.
Is finally naming a Minority Engagement staffer in mid-contest too little, too late? Will Trump’s five national staffers really be able to outwork the fifteen plus full time staffers President Biden employs on his reelection campaign?
Fickle voter turnout in 2024 is a strong possibility, as represented by the Presidential Primary results that showed President Biden ahead by more than 1600 delegates.
Hopeful grassroots activists of all shades and hues are eager to support President Trump in this third bid for the White House. We cannot, however, count on another Biden gaff to spur supporters toward polls, and neither should we.
Rural white voters, especially in Georgia, are like absentee choir members who have been pitched to for generations. They may not be the difference makers Republicans should seek, especially when scandal continues to follow President Trump around like a Democrat-cast shadow.
Urban America, on the other hand, is ripe for the picking.
The Biden Campaign realizes this fact. Is anyone else listening?
